8th Threat: Ecocide

There is a limited amount of air, land, and water to sustain us, not to mention a narrow band of environmental factors such as temperature, climate etc. in which we can prosper. There is no doubt that we’re having a greater and greater impact on all of the above … and our numbers are growing.

If you think that we can’t destroy civilization by ruining our ecosystem, just look to our past. Throughout our history we have overhunted, over farmed, and over consumed whatever. The Mayans and Easter Islanders could attest to disastrous result … if they were still around.

http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/Features/Maya/

http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/nova/earth/fate-of-easter-island.html

Now, even though we are playing on a worldwide scale, we have only one planet to work with. We are not only clear cutting nature, we’re putting garbage into the soil, sewage into the water, and since the Industrial Revolution, pumping pollutants into the atmosphere. It’s not just that we are breathing  back in soot and dirt, but that the gases (like CO2) we pump into the air that are harmless at environmental feedback loop levels (plants take in CO2 and exhale Oxygen, animals the reverse), are bad in excess. They change the built-in climate-controls that have evolved over eons. Like the Mayans and Easter Islanders, we are playing with forces beyond our comprehension that will have dire results.

http://climate.nasa.gov/effects/

Next up, the Ninth Threat … one we’re just beginning to understand.

7th Threat: Wars and other Acts of Terrorism.

The last three of the Nine Threats can be called Latent: it is the great burden of sentience to carry within the seeds of its own extinction.

At no time in our history, starting with the apes, have we been free of murderous conflict. Even those who harken back to the blissful days of the Garden of Eden must face the fact that Cain got his wife from a pre-existing pool of blood. I don’t need to beat a dead horse on this, but just in case there are any doubters, look at this: http://conflicthistory.com/#/period/1936-1946

Today is no different, at least from the standpoint of armed conflict and the new face of War; to wit, Terrorism. Of course, now we can not only kill off neighboring tribes, but those on the other side of the world as well. The sticks and stones of yesteryear became arrows and bullets, then atomic bombs.

And for those who think détente can save us from ourselves, ask yourself this: would Bin Laden have used ‘The Bomb’? http://www.kingofbombs.com/terrorism.html

With the proliferation of nuclear weapons (and the club is growing), it is only a matter of time before some single-minded madman becomes the ultimate suicide bomber.

http://ploughshares.org/world-nuclear-stockpile-report
But cheer up. Climate Change may get us first! Next up, the 8^th Threat.

The Sixth Threat

The last of the Three Local Threats we can call Biologic; by predation from microbes to monsters, life is the eater of life. And we’re the monsters. Having hunted and clear cut our way to the top of the food chain, we’re killing off other species at some thousand times the rate of natural selection.

http://wwf.panda.org/about_our_earth/biodiversity/biodiversity/

But when you reach the top of the ladder, the threat doesn’t come from above.  The big can be toppled by the smallest of creatures below. The world around us provides many examples: microorganisms are killing off fauna from Brown Bats to Honey Bees. And we just have to look to our own history to see that we are not immune.

More than five hundred years ago, the Bubonic Plague (caused by bacteria) killed about 1/3 of Europeans  … in crowded cities, up to 2/3 of the population died faster than they could be burned.  http://www.health24.com/Lifestyle/Man/Your-health/Bubonic-Plague-15-facts-20130318

 

In a perverse feedback loop, bacteria are becoming resistant to antibiotics because we've overused them. Now, drug companies aren’t even making many antibiotics these days; there’s not enough money in it! Makes you wonder who they think will buy their products when the next killer bug bites and we have no defense?

Then of course, there's viruses. Just a hundred years ago or so the Spanish flu killed 50-100 million people, nearly  1/3 of those infected died. Believe it or not, the worst hit was the 20-40 age group. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1918_flu_pandemic

Today, pandemics still threaten us.  The kill rate for H7N9 is some 33%. And there's no vaccine. It's just a matter of time before this mutates into an easily spreadable form. http://healthland.time.com/2013/06/24/most-recent-h7n9-flu-deadlier-than-h1n1/

We’re killing the planet and leaving ourselves open to Mother Nature’s revenge all for a few bucks. And do we really think we can prosper as a sole survivor when most of the animals and plants are gone. Biodiversity is a symbiotic feedback loop that sustains itself. Like the climate, it has a tipping point beyond which our house of cards will fall. We know this is true, we just won’t know how much killing is too much until it's too late.

In truth, greed is willfully short-sighted. And Capitalism feeds off greed. The mantra of the blissful blind has become “Market forces will fix everything.” Yet consumerism is driving us like lemmings to the cliff. We better wake up; the Market has no conscience. It makes a better servant than master.

But such predators aren't our worst problem. Next, the ‘Latent Threats’  7-9 where we willfully prey upon ourselves.

5th Threat: Biospheric

This threat to life is the second of three ‘Local’ threats; a good example of the fact that you not only need to live in a safe neighborhood, but a safe home as well. Never mind the more immediate danger from earthquakes, tsunamis, and super volcanoes, we can’t take the air we breathe and the water we drink for granted. The Moon and Mars have lost (or mostly lost) theirs—and Venus is an example of a good thing gone bad.

                 http://csep10.phys.utk.edu/astr161/lect/venus/atmosphere.html

                With an atmosphere of 96% carbon dioxide, Venus is a greenhouse with little free oxygen.  It’s too hot for surface water, and even if there was any, it would be laced with sulphuric acid. And in case you think the 5^th Threat is esoteric, this, or something similar is where we’re headed.

                First up: atmospheres can change. Earth is on its third. In fact, for much of history, our air wasn’t much better than that of Venus.

http://teachertech.rice.edu/Participants/louviere/history.html

                Second, organisms can change atmospheres. To wit, we wouldn’t have oxygen without bacteria, and humans (simply larger symbiotic bags of bacteria) are now pumping carbon dioxide into the air.

No one denies this, but those that are doing the most damage ignore scientists and pretend it doesn’t make any difference. Availing themselves of science—they gladly crank up the AC in their pickups and SUV’s, pop open a cold one from the fridge, or fire off a couple of rounds from their AK47’s—but tell them something they don’t want to hear and suddenly they’re smarter than Einstein. Saying there are two sides to the ‘Climate Debate’ is like saying there are two sides to the Holocaust.

Anyway, it may already be too late.

http://blog.syracuse.com/opinion/2013/05/climate_change_400_ppm_carbon.html

 

            I hope there is a hell for nay-sayers and do-nothings.  I guess it would look like Venus.

The 4th THREAT of NINE

 

This is what I’ve called Geologic, the first of the Three Local Threats not from the sky above our heads, but the ground below our feet.

First up, Earthquakes. Like the big one in Japan in 2011, or in Sumatra in 2004, of course here, the one San Fran in 1906 … and ‘the beat goes on.’  Arguably, despite better building codes and warning systems, we are more vulnerable because we are so dependent on our infrastructure. It’s the collateral damage to buildings, nuclear power plants, electricity, gas lines, sewage pipes, etc.  We’ll be up to our proverbial in it and aftershocks. Then there always the chance of Tsunamis. Anyway, we know the next big one is coming … we just don’t know when or where.

http://www.australiangeographic.com.au/journal/the-10-biggest-earthquakes-in-recorded-history.htm

Worse are Super Volcanoes, thousands of times larger than ‘normal ones.’  And yes, they do go off on a regular basis.  The largest confirmed such eruption was some 28 million years ago … in Colorado … about 2000 times larger than Mt. St. Helens. And we think there may have been larger still about 130 million years ago when South America and Africa were joined at the hip as part of Gondwana. Talk about a messy divorce!

Anyway, the damage here is not just to nearby flora and fauna from massive lava flows and hot gases, but worldwide from volcanic ash pumped into the atmosphere in huge quantities. Carried by high level winds, this eventually blankets the Earth blocking the sunlight and killing plants that support the food chain. Of course, the temperature drops so we’ll freeze in the dark with nothing to eat.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Volcanic_Explosivity_Index

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_largest_volcanic_eruptions

And we know a big one is coming soon. Yellowstone has been super-erupting every 600-700 thousand years for the last two million years. The last one was about 620 million years ago!

http://www.cbc.ca/doczone/episode/supervolcano-yellowstones-fury.html

Then there’s always the Magnetic field! We’re living next to an unshielded nuclear power plant (the sun) with only a ‘magnet’ for protection. Eventually this runs out; the Moon and Mars have already (mostly) lost theirs if you get my drift. Of course, this will take a while yet for us, but ours flips periodically between the North and South poles and in the process we lose protection for some period of time. Signs point to the fact that we’re overdue! How do you like your chicken … extra crispy?

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Geomagnetic_reversal

http://news.nationalpost.com/2012/10/03/earths-magnetic-field-overdue-for-a-chaos-causing-possibly-life-altering-flip/

Threat # 3 of 9

 

The last of the three threats from beyond our world I’ve labeled ‘Planetary’ because these involve collisions between planets and planetoids; moons, asteroids, comets etc. These smaller hunks of rock and ice are found in the Asteroid Belt between Mars and Jupiter and in the Oort cloud from the orbit of Neptune to the outer reaches of our solar system. They’re the leftovers of the grand buffet that filled in the planets … but they can still cause a ‘food fight.’

The Earth was formed from the torrid union of a well hung planetoid and a stoned tramp.

 

                                              

 

And early on our world was rocked. Eventually, like marriage, things calmed down. But the cosmos can still get its rocks off … just ask the dinosaurs.

Scientists say it is just a matter of time before we have another extinction event. Lately, both our moon and Jupiter have been struck.

 

 

Closer to home, earlier this year one exploded in our atmosphere. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Y66OHiB_p4I

Fortunately it was small. NASA tracks NEOs (Near Earth Objects) … but their budget just got cut! Heads up … we’re due.

Next up, the first of the Three Local Threats.

 

 

The Second of Nine Threats

This threat is all about the life and death of stars, and precisely where you happen to be when it happens.

In five billion years, give or take a billion, in its death throes the sun will bloat like a gassy balloon … maybe as far as Mars. Unfortunately, Earth is in the way. Sayonara sapiens. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=q9L7SMoT3RM

But we won’t have to wait that long. In about a billion years, give or take a few hundred million, the sun will be unbearably hot. It’s already about 30% hotter than in its youth. Talk about climate change.  http://io9.com/what-the-death-of-the-sun-will-look-like-471796727

But maybe even before that, solar storms will get us. 1859 was the year of the last big one. http://www.space.com/12584-worst-solar-storms-sun-flares-history.html

To the point, we’ll be gone long before the sun dies. But it doesn’t even have to be our star that does the job. Every 225-250 million years we complete an orbit of the galactic center. While there are currently no candidates for supernovae in our neighbourhood, if we wait long enough, like the weather, that’ll change. Do you know where your sun has been? http://www.dailygalaxy.com/my_weblog/2011/12/are-we-entering-the-danger-zone-the-solar-systems-250-million-year-orbit-through-the-milky-way.html

Next blog, Threat #3.